Prediction Run

Today was a prediction run at my LRS.  About 50 people ran, some running in pairs, others the entire course on their own.  The entire route was a half marathon distance, divided into two loops that started and ended at the store.  The goal of the prediction run isn’t necessarily to be the fastest, but to be the most accurate–once the maps (which are held in secrecy until the morning of the event) are distributed, each runner/team has to ‘predict’ their finish time.

I ran with another running club member as part of a relay.  It’s hard for me after resting after a half marathon to build my distance back up–it takes me a while to get motivated for anything over 5 miles.  So I didn’t feel like jumping into another 13.x mile event.  I took the first leg of the relay which was 6.47 miles or so of a primarily uphill route.  My partner’s half was a flatter 6.8 miles until the last uphill mile.

My time was about 1:02–I can’t be exact, because part of the hard part about the prediction run is the rule against wearing GPSs, phones, watches, ipods, heart rate monitors, etc.  It wasn’t until I got home and mapped the run on Daily Mile that I saw how uphill my route was–starting at 300 ft or so, climbing to over 650 over the first 5 miles.  Just a slow, steady incline.  So I’m not so disappointed with my time–the uphill, coupled with the wicked head wind was a tough nut to crack.

My partner with her longer route did pretty well, but we still weren’t even close to the 10 top finishers.  Our predicted time was 2:10:09.  I think we were slightly over that.  The top 10 finishers finished within 60 seconds of their predictions.  And the top five were within 12 seconds of their predictions.  I can’t even imagine knowing my pace that well.  The winner was only 4 seconds off!  The winner’s name goes on the “golden foot” which is basically a mannequin’s foot painted gold.

After the run, the LRS served breakfast for us!  Fruit salad, bagels, eggs, corn pudding, oatmeal, coffee, coffee cake, and tons of other goodies. It was nice to catch up with some people I hadn’t seen in awhile, and nice to meet some new folks.  I feel lucky to have fallen into this community–people all ages and all walks of life–and everyone is so pleasant.  It’s a good feeling, and a great way to start (or end–depending on your perspective) a week.



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